Pajouhan Scientific Journal, Autumn, In Press
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Salman Khazaei 
, Mehrshad Mohebifar , Ensiyeh Jenabi , Mohammad Rasool Rostamimanesh , Erfan Ayubi *1
, Mehrshad Mohebifar , Ensiyeh Jenabi , Mohammad Rasool Rostamimanesh , Erfan Ayubi *1
1- , aubi65@gmail.com
Abstract: (27 Views)
Background and Objectives: Low birth weight (LBW) reflects maternal health conditions, prenatal care, and the socioeconomic status of nations. Evaluating the global trend of this indicator along with income inequalities can provide valuable insights into the pattern of LBW in recent years. This study aimed to analyze global LBW trends from 2000 to 2020, examine income inequalities, and project the situation to 2030.
Materials and Methods: In this ecological study, LBW prevalence data were extracted from the World Health Organization database for 180 countries during the period 2000–2020 and analyzed based on the World Bank four‑group income classification. One‑way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare mean LBW rates across income groups. Multivariate linear regression was applied to identify key macro‑level determinants (income level and geographic region). K‑means clustering analysis was employed to classify countries according to their rate of change over time. Projections to 2030 were made using linear extrapolation of observed trends. All analyses were performed using Stata version 17, and a significance level of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results: The global mean LBW decreased from 11.67% in 2000 to 11.23% in 2020 over the two decades studied. There was a significant gap between income groups (P < 0.001); low-income countries had the highest rate (15.58%) and high-income countries had the lowest rate (8.26%). Vietnam (−36.4%), Afghanistan (−25.6%), and Senegal (−21.3%) experienced the greatest decreases, while Kuwait (+42.6%) and Jordan (+29.5%) showed the largest increases. Three distinct clusters were identified: countries with slow changes (94 countries), rapid decreases (54 countries), and rapid increases (32 countries). Linear extrapolation of the annual trend for each income group to 2030 indicates the persistence of the income gap, with LBW rates reaching 13.74% in low-income countries and 8.66% in high-income countries (P < 0.001).
Conclusion: Despite a slow decline in the global mean LBW, a deep and persistent inequality exists between countries with different income levels. Achieving sustainable development goals requires targeted interventions with an emphasis on reducing structural inequalities and exchanging successful experiences between countries.
Materials and Methods: In this ecological study, LBW prevalence data were extracted from the World Health Organization database for 180 countries during the period 2000–2020 and analyzed based on the World Bank four‑group income classification. One‑way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare mean LBW rates across income groups. Multivariate linear regression was applied to identify key macro‑level determinants (income level and geographic region). K‑means clustering analysis was employed to classify countries according to their rate of change over time. Projections to 2030 were made using linear extrapolation of observed trends. All analyses were performed using Stata version 17, and a significance level of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results: The global mean LBW decreased from 11.67% in 2000 to 11.23% in 2020 over the two decades studied. There was a significant gap between income groups (P < 0.001); low-income countries had the highest rate (15.58%) and high-income countries had the lowest rate (8.26%). Vietnam (−36.4%), Afghanistan (−25.6%), and Senegal (−21.3%) experienced the greatest decreases, while Kuwait (+42.6%) and Jordan (+29.5%) showed the largest increases. Three distinct clusters were identified: countries with slow changes (94 countries), rapid decreases (54 countries), and rapid increases (32 countries). Linear extrapolation of the annual trend for each income group to 2030 indicates the persistence of the income gap, with LBW rates reaching 13.74% in low-income countries and 8.66% in high-income countries (P < 0.001).
Conclusion: Despite a slow decline in the global mean LBW, a deep and persistent inequality exists between countries with different income levels. Achieving sustainable development goals requires targeted interventions with an emphasis on reducing structural inequalities and exchanging successful experiences between countries.
Type of Study: Research Article |
Subject:
Biostatistic & Epidemiology
Received: 2026/06/1 | Accepted: 2026/07/18
Received: 2026/06/1 | Accepted: 2026/07/18
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